What Will Start The Next World War?
By Chet Bowen | May 19, 2009 - 1:59 am - Posted in The world, Uncategorized

Benjamin Netanyahu is on a mission. Over the next several months, Israel’s new prime minister aims to convince world leaders of the imminent danger Iran poses to Western civilization. Shortly before he was sworn in on March 31, Netanyahu told the Atlantic that besides fixing the economy, Washington’s other primary imperative must be to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

“You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs,” Netanyahu said of the Islamist theocracy.

Should the Obama administration fail to stop Iran, Netanyahu said, Israel might be forced to preemptively strike the Islamic Republic.

Since the Bible affirms that Europe—not Israel or the United States—will ultimately smash the Iran-led “king of the south” (Daniel 11:40), in some ways, Israel’s hawkish threats against Tehran might distract us from other, far more consequential events, prophetically speaking.

The Bible says the spectacular clash between the European “king of the north” and radical Islam will primarily revolve around Jerusalem. It’s the division of Jerusalem, not Iran’s quest for nuclear power, that will trigger the next worldwide war.

The Inevitable Clash

“Behold, the day of the Lord cometh,” Zechariah wrote in a prophecy for the end time. “For I will gather all nations against Jerusalem to battle; and the city shall be taken, and the houses rifled, and the women ravished; and half of the city shall go forth into captivity, and the residue of the people shall not be cut off from the city” (Zechariah 14:1-2).

In the vision, the prophet begins with the Second Coming of Jesus Christ and then works his way back to describe events that immediately precede the Messiah’s appearance on Earth. Before all nations gather to fight against Christ at His return, Jerusalem “shall be taken”—conquered by the European conglomerate. This event, signaling the beginning of what the Bible calls the Great Tribulation, occurs shortly after Europe’s whirlwind attack against radical Islam.

Shortly before that clash between the kings of the north and south, Zechariah says half of Jerusalem will “go forth into captivity,” indicating the city will be divided by some kind of violent struggle. What this prophecy indicates is that a Hamas-dominated Palestinian insurgence, backed by Iran, will take half the city of Jerusalem captive.

The Israeli-Islamist clash over Jerusalem is what we need to be watching for next.

For the past decade, at times it appeared as if Israel would willingly give up East Jerusalem at the negotiating table. In December of 2005, a poll published by Yedioth Ahronoth found that about half of Israelis supported the idea of giving up parts of Arab East Jerusalem if it would solidify a peace deal with the Palestinians.

Even before he became prime minister, Ehud Olmert said that Israel would someday have to give up its dream of an eternally united Jerusalem under Jewish sovereignty. After one month in office, one of Olmert’s colleagues in Kadima told the Associated Press that Olmert’s government was devising a plan for dividing Jerusalem.

Compare that with where we suddenly are today. What a difference three years makes, as Pierre Atlas wrote March 27 for Real Clear Politics, contrasting Israel’s new government with Ehud Olmert’s. Atlas noted that in 2006, most Israelis supported the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, and much of the Knesset favored withdrawing from parts of the West Bank. At the time, the right-wing Likud party, which opposed unilateral withdrawals, suffered most as a result of the electorate’s mood. It lost 26 of its 38 seats in the 2006 parliamentary elections.

“No one could have imagined then that, three years later,” Atlas wrote, “Netanyahu would be forming the next Israeli government.”

Actually, shortly before those 2006 elections, as our regular readers know, our editor in chief mentioned on his weekly Key of David television program that Benjamin Netanyahu would likely return to power in Israel because of the prophecy in Zechariah 14:2. He said half of Jerusalem is “going to be taken by force, and you need to realize that. Now, that might also indicate that the Likud, or the conservative party, will get in power” (Jan. 6, 2006).

With a right-wing coalition now in power in Israel, that brings us one giant prophetic leap closer to the inevitable clash over Jerusalem.

The Fight for the City of David

In sharp contrast to his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu campaigned for prime minister on keeping Jerusalem united. At a campaign stop at the Regency Hotel on Mt. Scopus, Netanyahu said, “If we gave up half of Jerusalem, there would be an Iranian base right near this hotel.”

International scorn for this harder-line stance has been intense. In early March, for example, Israel was blasted for its proposal to expand an archaeology park in the City of David, which would require the demolition of dozens of Palestinian homes that have been constructed there illegally over the past 20 years. This in spite of the fact that, under the plan, not only would East Jerusalem wastelands be converted into beautiful gardens and parks, but the illegal residents would also be given generous compensation packages, which would include relocation land.

During her March visit to the region, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said any plan that calls for the demolition of Palestinian homes would not help the peace process.

Nir Barkat, Jerusalem’s new mayor, criticized Clinton for being duped by Palestinian propaganda. The Palestinian Authority has accused Israel of “ethnically cleansing” East Jerusalem in order to “Judaize” the city.

The European Union has also harshly criticized Israel. According to a confidential EU report that was leaked to the media in March, EU officials have accused Israel of “actively pursuing the illegal annexation” of East Jerusalem (emphasis ours).

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has vowed to push ahead with this multiyear development plan even as critics lambaste the government for making it harder to divide Jerusalem as part of any two-state solution. One official from Netanyahu’s office who defended the government’s position told the Times of London, “Jerusalem has been the eternal capital of the Jewish people for some 3,000 years and will remain the united capital of the State of Israel.”

Mayor Barkat, like Prime Minister Netanyahu, supports keeping Jerusalem united. Under the direction of Barkat, Jerusalem authorities recently sent eviction notices to 90 families in East Jerusalem near the Old City, warning that because their homes had been built without proper council approval, they would be demolished.

In an interview with the Jerusalem Post, Barkat defended the municipality’s plans for the city by saying, “I would like to see what [New York Mayor Michael] Bloomberg would say about illegal building in Central Park. Would he give up Central Park because there is illegal building there?”

The battle for the City of David, located in the Arab neighborhood of Silwan, is a microcosm of a larger struggle that will soon thrust the entire city of Jerusalem into a boiling cauldron of hatred and violence.

Becoming a War Zone

Tension between Palestinians and Jews increased substantially after the Gaza war in January. It intensified further after the elections of Prime Minister Netanyahu and Mayor Barkat. Many right-wing Jewish movements, invigorated by the new government’s refusal to cave in to Palestinian ambition, are experiencing a renaissance.

This is not to imply that the Palestinian cause is flailing. In fact, it too is gaining steam, thanks to increasing direct and indirect support from the international community—most notably from the American administration of Barack Obama.

Jerusalem, especially East Jerusalem, is quickly deteriorating into a war zone!

Consider a few recent events. On April 2, in the West Bank town of Bat Ayin near East Jerusalem, a Palestinian brandishing a pickax hacked a 13-year-old Israeli boy to death and wounded his 7-year-old friend. Islamic terrorist groups Islamic Jihad and the Imad Mughniyeh Group claimed responsibility for the murder, warning ominously that it was merely a “natural response to the crimes of the occupation.”

The same day, at about 2 a.m. in the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City, seven Jewish settlers broke into the home of Nasser Jaber, a Palestinian businessman who had moved out of the home while renovations were being done. Claiming they owned the house, the settlers replaced the locks and took over the home.

In April, a Palestinian man driving a car tried to run over Israeli police officers. The police, who were monitoring the demolition of the Jerusalem home of the Palestinian terrorist who killed three Israelis in a bulldozer rampage last July, shot the man dead. Afterward, a scuffle erupted between police officers and dozens of angry Palestinians who sympathized with both the driver of the vehicle and the terrorist whose house was being bulldozed.

The next day, a spokesman from Hamas’s military wing delivered a prophetically electrifying response to Israel’s efforts to defend itself against illegal Arab intrusions. Hamas official Abu Ubayda “threatened Israel of an ‘explosion’ if it continues to consolidate control of Jerusalem,” the Ma’an News Agency reported. Ubayda also warned that “the Judaization of Jerusalem and threat to the iconic al-Aqsa Mosque could provoke reprisals.”

Jerusalem’s cobbled streets are rumbling, tension is mounting, war is brewing. This is sobering. But it is also incredibly exciting.

This intensifying conflict will result in the prophesied division of Jerusalem, which is the trigger that will set off a rapid-fire sequence of events culminating in the return of the Messiah to the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem (Zechariah 14:4).

“When half of Jerusalem falls,” editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote in March 2006, “it starts a chain reaction of events—an avalanche of crises—that leads directly to Christ’s Second Coming!” This is why—even during economic, political, social and personal calamity—we must not take our eyes off Jerusalem.

Events in that city are the measure of how close we are to the most awesome event in human history!

Logically, Jesus’s focus right now is on ensuring Jerusalem, His landing pad, is ready for His return. In a spectacular way, conditions in Jerusalem today—politically, demographically, economically, even archaeologically—are aligning just as Christ described in the Bible 2,000 years ago!

We need to watch Jerusalem closer than ever. Even now, events in that city indicate that the Messiah’s return is imminent, and that the time rapidly approaches when He will transform Jerusalem into exactly what its name means: a city of PEACE!

Study Zechariah’s prophecy in detail in our free booklet Jerusalem in Prophecy, ?specifically Chapter 3. •

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By Chet Bowen | December 10, 2008 - 9:07 pm - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized
Saudi Arabia’s top cleric has used his annual sermon to Muslim pilgrims assembling for hajj to urge Muslim countries to renounce capitalism and form an Islamic economic bloc that adopts interest-free finance.

Grand Mufti Abdelaziz Al al-Sheikh told worshippers assembling on the plain of Mount Arafat that global economies now caught in crisis were suffering the result of using interest as a bedrock of their financial systems. Under Islamic law, or sharia, paying or receiving interest is forbidden.

The crisis, he said, demonstrated that “Muslim countries must have sharia-compliant economies and unite to become a formidable economic power”.

Islamic banks, which grew rapidly in the Gulf region in recent years from an influx of oil receipts, often depend on retail deposits rather than money markets for funding. As a result, sharia-compliant banks generally demand strong collateral, which some argue is why their exposure to toxic loans is limited.

The white-bearded mufti, wearing the traditional white robes of the pilgrim, also warned young Muslims to stay away from the corrupting influences of the modern media, which he termed “ideological terror” and said was targeting them.

The mufti’s economic edicts are meant to serve more for spiritual guidance, and commenting on a global economic phenomenon is a rare event.

Some pilgrims said that they would pray for an end to the global financial crisis.

Mohammad Fateh, who works for a brokerage in Egypt, told Reuters: “The economic crisis is on the mind of most pilgrims. They are going to pray to God to alleviate the problem…It’s an unexpected crisis and the only solution is mercy from heaven.

“The Arab and Muslim worlds are going to be affected by this crisis. I’ll pray to God to lift this scourge,” he said, adding that many had asked him to offer prayers on their behalf.

The hajj retraces the path of the Prophet Mohammed 14 centuries ago after he removed pagan idols from Mecca, his birthplace, and years after he started calling people to the new faith, now embraced by more than 1bn people worldwide.

At Arafat, Muslims pray for forgiveness and for their own and fellow Muslims’ welfare.

After sunset, the pilgrims were scheduled to continue their gradual trip toward Mecca, heading for Muzdalifa to gather pebbles for the symbolic ritual of throwing stones at a set of pillars and walls representing the devil.

Saudi media said this year a record 1.72m hajj visas had been granted to Muslims abroad and at least 500,000 local people had received permits.

This year’s hajj has so far not faced any of the problems or disasters that have marred the event in previous years, which included fires, hotel collapses, police clashes with protesters and deadly stampedes caused by overcrowding.

Saudi Arabian authorities have carried out renovations over the past year in an effort to ease the flow of pilgrims inside the Grand Mosque and at the disaster-prone Jamarat bridge. In January 2006, 362 people were crushed to death there in the worst hajj tragedy since 1990.

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Religious head incited killers
By Chet Bowen | December 3, 2008 - 2:59 am - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized
Once again we have witnessed an Islamic terrorist attack incited and justified through appeals to Islam by its perpetrators. On one level it is understandable why so many in the West are unwilling or unable to connect the militant ideology of political Islam to the thousands of Islamic terror attacks that have been committed worldwide since 9/11. We extol the virtues of tolerance and pluralism and believe others in the world do so as well, so it is easy to dismiss such attacks as the work of a few “extremists,” rather than the product of adherence to an ideology.

The fatal flaw in this thinking is this: How can we successfully win a war on Islamic terrorism if we don’t correctly define the threat doctrine that motivates its adherents?

It is argued that most of the world’s Muslims are not terrorists. While true, this fact is irrelevant. Most of the world’s Muslims have never read the Qur’an or the Hadith in a language they can understand. They have not read the hundreds of passages that call for jihad against infidels, nor do they renounce such passages. They do not organize en masse to denounce the terrorist acts perpetrated by other Muslims in the name of Islam, nor do they denounce the frequent exhortations to world subjugation found in the holy books of Islam.

Yes, there are Muslims who have denounced the Mumbai attacks. But examine their denunciations closely and you will be hard-pressed to find renunciations of the supremacist doctrine of political Islam — the foundation for jihad — which emanates from its holy books. This is the justification commonly cited by terrorists for their actions. We in the West must come to grips with the uncomfortable fact that terrorism is a symptom of this militant, supremacist ideology. Terrorism is a means to an end, not an end in itself. And it is but one of many means used by those who are devoted to the supremacist ideology of political Islam.


Religious head incited killers

Bruce Loudon, South Asia correspondent | December 01, 2008

Article from: The Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24731818-2703,00.html

THE al-Qa’ida-linked Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists suspected over the Mumbai massacre were trained in Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and were incited by speeches from their leader in Lahore.

As the sole surviving terrorist was interrogated in Mumbai, security sources told The Australian that 10 terrorists were picked by LET for the suicide mission.

They were ordered to “kill until your last breath” and murder up to 5000 people.

They did so after provocative speeches by Hafiz Mohammed Saeed last month in Lahore, capital of the Punjab.

Saeed, described as LET’s supreme religious and political head, declared in one speech: “The only language India understands is that of force, and that is the language it must be talked to in.”

The email claiming responsibility for the Mumbai attack minutes after it started last Wednesday was generated on a computer based in Pakistan.

And a satellite telephone captured from the terrorists revealed calls made to numbers in Pakistan during the attacks, reports said.

Officials said the terrorists’ route to Mumbai had been recorded on GPS co-ordinates contained in the satellite phones.

Sources said the 10 terrorists — most of whom were believed to be Pakistanis — were ordered to undergo training to attack Mumbai.

The captured gunman, Ajmal Amir Kamal, 21, reportedly told intelligence sources the group had trained openly in Muzaffarabad before heading to the nearby Mangala dam for lessons in marine commando techniques.

The group then visited Rawalpindi, which adjoins Islamabad, the Pakistan capital and site of the Pakistan army headquarters.

From there, the group took a train to the port city of Karachi, where, heavily armed, they boarded a freighter for the trip to Mumbai. Along the way, they became nervous about Indian coastguard activity and almost aborted the mission.

They “dragooned” a less conspicuous, passing fishing boat into service, shooting dead four of its crew members. The skipper of the fishing boat and another crew member took them closer to Mumbai before they, too, were killed. One was decapitated and the other had his throat slit.

Close to shore, they transferred to small speedboats for the run into the two landing points they had selected in Mumbai – Sassoon Docks and Badhwar Park, on Cuff Parade.

Conflicting evidence obtained by intelligence agencies suggests that the group may have had local support, and that one or more of its members may have been staying locally, possibly even in the Taj Mahal hotel.

A British link to the attacks was raised over the weekend when a senior Indian official claimed that Britons were among the militants.

Vilasrao Deshmukh, the chief minister of Maharashtra state, in which Mumbai lies, was quoted on an Indian television station as saying that British citizens had been detained.

British MP Patrick Mercer, a former Tory security spokesman, said he had been given information that at least two of the terrorists had credit cards and other identifying documents that linked them to Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, in northeast England.

The claims, however, were not substantiated by official British sources, who said there was no evidence “at this stage” that Britons had taken part in the attacks, although they acknowledged that events were “moving fast” and more information was emerging about the nationality of the terrorists.

MI5 and British counter-terrorist police are keeping in close touch with their counterparts in India and are alert to the possibility that Britons with Pakistani origins might have been involved. Significant numbers of young British Pakistanis have taken part in terrorist training in Pakistan.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that there was no evidence of Britons being involved, and the Foreign Secretary David Miliband said: “We obviously will want to work very closely with the Indians but it is too early to say whether or not any of them are British.”

Malaysian police are investigating reports that Malaysian-issued credit cards were found in the belongings of the terrorists involved in the Mumbai attacks.

Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar said Malaysia had no links with the terrorists, responding to an Indian report that nine of the gunmen claimed to be Malaysian students when they travelled to Mumbai several months ago.

Terror analyst Praveen Swami said that at a meeting of key LET leaders in Lahore on October 19, LET leader Saeed, who insists he is only head of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa welfare organisation, made plain his view of Pakistan’s neighbour.

“India, he claimed, was building dams in (Indian-controlled) Jammu and Kashmir to choke Pakistan’s water supplies and cripple its agriculture,” Mr Swami reported Saeed as saying.

“Earlier, in an October 6 speech, Saeed claimed that India had ‘made a deal with the United States to send 150,000 Indian troops to Afghanistan’ and that it agreed to support the US in its existential war against Islam.

“Finally, in a sermon to a congregation at the Jamia Masjid al-Qudsia (mosque) in Lahore at the end of October, Saeed proclaimed that there was an ‘ongoing war in the world between Islam and its enemies’.

“He claimed that ‘crusaders of the East and West have united in a cohesive onslaught against Muslims’.”

Chet Bowen

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What In The World?
By Chet Bowen | November 24, 2008 - 11:55 pm - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

War News Update: What In The World?

By Mark Harvey Sunday, November 23, 2008

I haven’t done a War News Update in quite a while due to the fervor of the elections quagmire but now that it is almost over, I will begin these updates at least once a week. I do have nearly 700+ dispatches saved up so expect a flurry of data that the media cannot reveal. Seeing that this is Victory In Iraq Day (VI-Day), let us begin with some information that has been widely ignored b y the Defeatocrats and those responsible for the war going as long as it has.

The first order of business will be a report from GrEaT sAtAn’S gIrLfRiEnD with the Military Advisors Manual. This report reveals what I have been espousing for quite some time seeing that I have some experience in this area. It is a worthy report and I agree with it entirely. General David Petraeus is a genius and it is too bad that politics got in the way of his ability to win this war earlier. If his ideas and concepts had been implemented sooner, perhaps the traitors and subversives would have been put in their proper places…in prison. Then again, the folks that could have done that are too cowardly to actually enforce current law.

CIA: Every Major Terror Threat, World Wide, Involves Pakistan

This has been known for quite some time but it wasn’t politically expedient to make it known. I am sure Czarbie would know something about this seeing that he did spend quite some time in Pakistan before he had threatened to bomb the hell out of Pakistan during his illegal campaign. Illegal campaign? Yes, that is what I said…the fool isn’t a US citizen but that won’t stop the enemies of the US from the coronation of the impostor.

Other posts I have done involve the Global Cultural Jihad. England is experiencing this and the United States is on track for Shar’ia Law by 2050. I suppose the Democrats will realize this when they are the first to be put to death by the sword of allah. In accordance with Shar’is Law, the ungodly will die first. The fools that have been “upset” by Prop 8 in California will be the most surprised.

In spite of the alleged Obama victory, Iran has decided not to honor their original “promises”. They will continue their Hate America mantra. They are also going to have a meeting. This isn’t a big surprise to me seeing that I still have difficulty differentiating the basic democrat party leader from the terrorists and their leaders…they speak the same language – America Sucks.

Steven J. Rosen has a piece up at the American Thinker published on 11/16 entitled, ”Did Iran Offer a ‘Grand Bargain’ in 2003?” Without getting into the details here at this time, we all know where this is going and from where it came. We also know that the premise was born in the bowels of the morons that have prolonged this war for the sake of political expediency and power. It was a farce and a lie then and it is even more so now. Rosen explains it in detail and I have the background of all that nonsense stored right here…have fun.

It is said that OBL is still alive and his busily farming out details of more attacks now that the week-kneed and thin-skinned coward Obama has theoretically won the election. They, the terrorists, know that Czarbie will do nothging to defend this Nation so their plots and plans will move forward in the hopes to reverse their losses in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraqw as well as just about everywhere else.

Vindication. It smells and tastes oh so sweet. For those of you that know me, you will know and remember that I have said this for years: CIA Agent Confirms Al-Qaeda Was In Iraq In 2002. Remember? This is one of the many areas that I have major issues with President Bush. It wasn’t politically expedient to make this known. Why? I have no idea. I do know that the war was prolonged because of it. I also know for a fact that the ones that made hay-day over President Bush being silent on this FACT also knew the data was factual but utilized the silence to further their cause of political power. They also rendered aid and comfort to the enemy during that process. Did I not make it widely known that we “watched them flee Afghanistan and flee to the Four Winds”? Yes, I did. I will stress this once again. We watched the enemy flee Afghanistan to Pakistan, Iran and Iraq. We stopped them in Tajikistan. Flopping Aces has more. However, neither Gateway Pundit, Flopping Aces or CQ Politics has what I have in my head and heart. They were not there. I was. Like I said. Vindication is sweet. Eat that you libtard morons. The libtards can also eat their BS about the WMD deal as well.

In other news, Stealth Jihad? It seems as though the Jihad is using the List of 45. Interesting that. Please note that I didn’t say “surprising”. Then again, we can always consider the Muslim Brotherhood and their ties to CAIR and the List of 45, can’t we? The proponents of CAIR and their democrat and RINO sympathizers are useful idiots in the demise of this Nation and the libtards are “Rather” pleased with themselves. I am going to laugh at them as their heads are lopped off by the sword of allah and just might break out the marshmallows to roast over their burning bodies. Then we can focus on killing the Jihadi scum in this nation.

While we are at it, seeing that Obama was having meetings with HAMAS all during his campaign, what if we had an investigation about that and why Syria and Iran have given HAMAS the green light? Surely there is something to that besides Obama being the pathological liar that he is. And, knowing that Obama is such a pathological liar on top of being a narcissist, can we really believe that he will not support the “Saudi” Israeli-Arab peace pact? Or, can we actually know why Iran is now backing off from their previous statements about supporting SOFA? Why on Earth wold they support that Plan now that the weakling Czarbie is set to steal the White House? Isn’t it just like a terrorist to act like a democrat and “change their mind” when politically expedient to do so? Democrats and terrorists…same-same.

Oh. And expect the usual “illegal war” crap to come up again. Naturally, thee isn’t any evidence to support that BS but that won’t stop the pathological liars on the left, will it? Then again, when they are clueless about the Iraq War, why should anyone really give them the attention they lust after?

As our Troops have won in Iraq and are winning in Afghanistan, NATO not withstanding, the Confederate Yankee tells us to brace for a total loss in the future. It is what the Democrats are all about. Then again, when the terrorists declare war on Pakistan, one has to wonder where all of this is going. Obama and the terrorists want to bomb Pakistan…

Whereas the treatment of President Bush has been off the charts and psychotic, at times I think he may have deserved it. He never seemed to take the libtards seriously. I do and don’t blame him for it but when it put our troops in danger, he should have at least came out and shamed the libtards out in the open and in public.

Some are saying that Afghanistan is barely winnable and I think that is primarily a NATO result. I have been a long supporter of disbanding NATO due to its ties to the UN. But, that is for another post for a different day.

Chet Bowen

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Busting the Anthrax Myth
By Chet Bowen | July 31, 2008 - 7:45 pm - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

Busting the Anthrax Myth

July 30, 2008



By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart

Dr. Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, told a congressional subcommittee on July 22 that the risk of a large-scale biological attack on the nation is significant and that the U.S. government knows its terrorist enemies have sought to use biological agents as instruments of warfare. Runge also said that the United States believes that capability is within the terrorists’ reach.

Runge gave his testimony before a subcommittee on Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity, and Science and Technology that was holding a field hearing in Providence, R.I., to discuss the topic of “Emerging Biological Threats and Public Health Preparedness.”

During his testimony, Runge specifically pointed to al Qaeda as the most significant threat and testified that the United States had determined that the terrorist organization is seeking to develop and use a biological weapon to cause mass casualties in an attack. According to Runge, U.S. analysis indicates that anthrax is the most likely choice, and a successful single-city attack on an unprepared population could kill hundreds of thousands of citizens.

Later in his testimony, Runge remarked that many do not perceive the threat of bioterrorism to be as significant as that of a nuclear or conventional strike, even though such an attack could kill as many people as a nuclear detonation and have its own long-term environmental effects.
We must admit to being among those who do not perceive the threat of bioterrorism to be as significant as that posed by a nuclear strike. To be fair, it must be noted that we also do not see strikes using chemical or radiological weapons rising to the threshold of a true weapon of mass destruction either. The successful detonation of a nuclear weapon in an American city would be far more devastating that any of these other forms of attack.
In fact, based on the past history of nonstate actors conducting attacks using biological weapons, we remain skeptical that a nonstate actor could conduct a biological weapons strike capable of creating as many casualties as a large strike using conventional explosives — such as the October 2002 Bali bombings that resulted in 202 deaths or the March 2004 train bombings in Madrid that killed 191.

We do not disagree with Runge’s statements that actors such as al Qaeda have demonstrated an interest in biological weapons. There is ample evidence that al Qaeda has a rudimentary biological weapons capability. However, there is a huge chasm of capability that separates intent and a rudimentary biological weapons program from a biological weapons program that is capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people.

Misconceptions About Biological Weapons

There are many misconceptions involving biological weapons. The three most common are that they are easy to obtain, that they are easy to deploy effectively, and that, when used, they always cause massive casualties.

While it is certainly true that there are many different types of actors who can easily gain access to rudimentary biological agents, there are far fewer actors who can actually isolate virulent strains of the agents, weaponize them and then effectively employ these agents in a manner that will realistically pose a significant threat of causing mass casualties. While organisms such as anthrax are present in the environment and are not difficult to obtain, more highly virulent strains of these tend to be far more difficult to locate, isolate and replicate. Such efforts require highly skilled individuals and sophisticated laboratory equipment.

Even incredibly deadly biological substances such as ricin and botulinum toxin are difficult to use in mass attacks. This difficulty arises when one attempts to take a rudimentary biological substance and then convert it into a weaponized form — a form that is potent enough to be deadly and yet readily dispersed. Even if this weaponization hurdle can be overcome, once developed, the weaponized agent must then be integrated with a weapons system that can effectively take large quantities of the agent and evenly distribute it in lethal doses to the intended targets.

During the past several decades in the era of modern terrorism, biological weapons have been used very infrequently and with very little success. This fact alone serves to highlight the gap between the biological warfare misconceptions and reality. Militant groups desperately want to kill people and are constantly seeking new innovations that will allow them to kill larger numbers of people. Certainly if biological weapons were as easily obtained, as easily weaponized and as effective at producing mass casualties as commonly portrayed, militant groups would have used them far more frequently than they have.

Militant groups are generally adaptive and responsive to failure. If something works, they will use it. If it does not, they will seek more effective means of achieving their deadly goals. A good example of this was the rise and fall of the use of chlorine in militant attacks in Iraq.

Anthrax

As noted by Runge, the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis is readily available in nature and can be deadly if inhaled, if ingested or if it comes into contact with a person’s skin. What constitutes a deadly dose of inhalation anthrax has not been precisely quantified, but is estimated to be somewhere between 8,000 and 50,000 spores. One gram of weaponized anthrax, such as that contained in the letters mailed to U.S. Sens. Tom Daschle and Patrick Leahy in October 2001, can contain up to one trillion spores — enough to cause somewhere between 20 and 100 million deaths. The letters mailed to Daschle and Leahy reportedly contained about one gram each for a total estimated quantity of two grams of anthrax spores: enough to have theoretically killed between 40 and 200 million people. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the current population of the United States is 304.7 million. In a worst-case scenario, the letters mailed to Daschle and Leahy theoreticall y contained enough anthrax spores to kill nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population.

Yet, in spite of their incredibly deadly potential, those letters (along with an estimated five other anthrax letters mailed in a prior wave to media outlets such as the New York Post and the major television networks) killed only five people; another 22 victims were infected by the spores but recovered after receiving medical treatment. This difference between the theoretical number of fatal victims — hundreds of millions — and the actual number of victims — five — highlights the challenges in effectively distributing even a highly virulent and weaponized strain of an organism to a large number of potential victims.

To summarize: obtaining a biological agent is fairly simple. Isolating a virulent strain and then weaponizing that strain is somewhat more difficult. But the key to biological warfare — effectively distributing a weaponized agent to the intended target — is the really difficult part of the process. Anyone planning a biological attack against a large target such as a city needs to be concerned about a host of factors such as dilution, wind velocity and direction, particle size and weight, the susceptibility of the disease to ultraviolet light, heat, dryness or even rain. Small-scale localized attacks such as the 2001 anthrax letters or the 1984 salmonella attack undertaken by the Bhagwan Shri Rajneesh cult are far easier to commit.

It is also important to remember that anthrax is not some sort of untreatable super disease. While anthrax does form hardy spores that can remain inert for a period of time, the disease is not easily transmitted from person to person, and therefore is unlikely to create an epidemic outside of the area targeted by the attack. Anthrax infections can be treated by the use of readily available antibiotics. The spores’ incubation period also permits time for early treatment if the attack is noticed.

The deadliest known anthrax incident in recent years occurred in 1979 when an accidental release of aerosolized spores from a Soviet biological weapons facility in Sverdlovsk affected some 94 people — reportedly killing 68 of them. This facility was one of dozens of laboratories that were part of the Soviet Union’s massive and well-funded biological weapons program, one that employed thousands of the country’s brightest scientists. In fact, it was the largest biological weapons program in history.
Perhaps the largest attempt by a nonstate actor to cause mass casualties using anthrax was the series of attacks conducted in 1993 by the Japanese cult group Aum Shinrikyo in Tokyo.

In the late 1980s, Aum’s team of trained scientists spent millions of dollars to develop a series of state-of-the-art biological weapons research and production laboratories. The group experimented with botulinum toxin, anthrax, cholera and Q fever and even tried to acquire the Ebola virus. The group hoped to produce enough biological agent to trigger a global Armageddon. Its first attempts at unleashing mega-death on the world involved the use of botulinum toxin. In April 1990, the group used a fleet of three trucks equipped with aerosol sprayers to release liquid botulinum toxin on targets that included the Imperial Palace, the National Diet of Japan, the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, two U.S. naval bases and the airport in Narita. In spite of the massive quantities of toxin released, there were no mass casualties, and, in fact, nobody outside of the cult was even aware the attacks had taken place.

When the botulinum operations failed to produce results, Aum’s scientists went back to the drawing board and retooled their biological weapons facilities to produce anthrax. By mid-1993, they were ready to launch attacks involving anthrax; between June and August of 1993, the group sprayed thousands of gallons of aerosolized liquid anthrax in Tokyo. This time, Aum not only employed its fleet of sprayer trucks but also used aerosol sprayers mounted on the roof of their headquarters to disperse a cloud of aerosolized anthrax over the city. Again, the attacks produced no results and were not even noticed. It was only after the group’s successful 1995 subway attacks using sarin nerve agent that a Japanese government investigation discovered that the 1990 and 1993 biological attacks had occurred.

Biological Weapons Production

Aum Shinrikyo’s team of highly trained scientists worked under ideal conditions in a first-world country with a virtually unlimited budget. They were able to travel the world in search of deadly organisms and even received technical advice from former Soviet scientists. The team worked in large, modern laboratory facilities to produce substantial quantities of biological weapons. They were able to operate these facilities inside industrial parks and openly order the large quantities of laboratory equipment they required. Yet, in spite of the millions of dollars the group spent on its biological weapons program — and the lack of any meaningful interference from the Japanese government — Aum still experienced problems in creating virulent biological agents and also found it difficult to dispense those agents effectively.

Today, al Qaeda finds itself operating in a very different environment than that experienced by Aum Shinrikyo in 1993. At that time, nobody was looking for Aum or its biological and chemical weapons program. By contrast, since the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States and its allies have actively pursued al Qaeda leaders and sought to dismantle and defang the organization. The United States and its allies have focused a considerable amount of resources in tracking and disassembling al Qaeda’s chemical and biological warfare efforts. The al Qaeda network has had millions of dollars of its assets seized in a number of countries, and it no longer has the safe haven of Afghanistan from which to operate. The chemical and biological facilities the group established in the 1990s in Afghanistan — such as the Deronta training camp, where cyanide and other toxins were used to kill dogs, and a crude anthrax production facility in Kandahar — have been found and destroy ed by U.S. troops.

Operating in the badlands along the Pakistani-Afghan border, al Qaeda cannot easily build large modern factories capable of producing large quantities of agents or toxins. Such fixed facilities are expensive and consume a lot of resources. Even if al Qaeda had the spare capacity to invest in such facilities, the fixed nature of them means that they could be compromised and quickly destroyed by the United States.

If al Qaeda could somehow create and hide a fixed biological weapons facility in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas or North-West Frontier Province, it would still face the daunting task of transporting large quantities of biological agents from the Pakistani badlands to targets in the United States or Europe. Al Qaeda operatives certainly can create and transport small quantities of these compounds, but not enough to wreak the kind of massive damage it desires.

Al Qaeda’s lead chemical and biological weapons expert, Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, also known as Abu Khabab al-Masri, was reportedly killed on July 28, 2008, by a U.S. missile strike on his home in Pakistan. Al-Sayid, who had a $5 million dollar bounty on his head, was initially reported to have been one of those killed in the January 2006 strike in Damadola. If he was indeed killed, his death should be another significant blow to the group’s biological warfare efforts.

Of course, we must recognize that the jihadist threat goes just beyond the al Qaeda core. As we have been writing for several years now, al Qaeda has undergone a metamorphosis from a smaller core group of professional operatives into an operational model that encourages independent grassroots jihadists to conduct attacks. The core al Qaeda group, through men like al-Sayid, has published manuals in hard copy and on the Internet that provide instructions on how to manufacture rudimentary biological weapons.

It is our belief that independent jihadist cells and lone-wolf jihadists will almost certainly attempt to brew up some of the recipes from the al Qaeda cookbook. There also exists a very real threat that a jihadist sympathizer could obtain a small quantity of deadly biological organisms by infiltrating a research facility.

This means that we likely will see some limited attempts at employing biological weapons. That does not mean, however, that such attacks will be large-scale or create mass casualties.

The Bottom Line

While there has been much consternation and alarm-raising over the potential for widespread proliferation of biological weapons and the possible use of such weapons on a massive scale, there are significant constraints on such designs. The current dearth of substantial biological weapons programs and arsenals by governments worldwide, and the even smaller number of cases in which systems were actually used, seems to belie — or at least bring into question — the intense concern about such programs.

While we would like to believe that countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia have halted their biological warfare programs for some noble ideological or humanitarian reason, we simply can’t. If biological weapons were in practice as effective as some would lead us to believe, these states would surely maintain stockpiles of them, just as they have maintained their nuclear weapons programs. Biological weapons programs were abandoned because they proved to be not as effective as advertised and because conventional munitions proved to provide more bang for the buck.

In some ways, the psychological fear of a “super weapon” — undetectable, microscopic, easily delivered and extremely deadly — shapes assessment of the threat, more so than an objective understanding of actual capability and intent (not to mention the extreme difficulties of ever creating some sort of a super bug). Conventional weapons systems, and unconventional tactics, continue to be the most cost-effective and proven methods of warfare, whether between state actors or between state and nonstate actors. Nuclear weapons have also been shown to have true weapons of mass destruction power.

To help keep the cost-benefit calculation of a biological warfare program in perspective, consider that Seung-Hui Cho, the man who committed the shooting at Virginia Tech, killed 32 people — more than six times as many as were killed by the 2001 anthrax letters. John Mohammed, the so-called “D.C. Sniper,” was able to cause a considerable amount of panic and kill twice as many people (10) by simply purchasing and using one assault rifle. Compare Mohammed’s effort and expenses to that of the Aum Shinrikyo anthrax program that took years of work by a huge team and millions of dollars to develop but infected no one.

Now, just because biological weapons are not all they are cracked up to be does not mean that efforts to undermine the biological warfare plans and efforts of militant groups such as al Qaeda should not continue or that programs to detect such agents or develop more effective treatments and vaccines should be halted. Even though an anthrax attack probably will not kill huge numbers of people, as we saw in the case of the anthrax letters, such an attack can be quite disruptive. Cleaning up after such an attack is expensive and takes considerable time and effort. Like a dirty bomb, an anthrax attack will more likely serve as a weapon of mass disruption and not a weapon of mass destruction.

Due to the disruption and the potential for some deaths as a result of an anthrax attack, the threat against the United States does remain a significant concern. However, the threat it represents is not as great as that of conventional attacks using firearms and explosives against soft targets, and it certainly does not rise anywhere near the level of a threat posed by a terrorist attack using a nuclear weapon.

Homeland security resources are very limited and have been shrinking as we move further from 9/11 and as other items begin to take precedence in the federal budget. This means that an array of different programs is being forced to scramble for an ever-shrinking piece of the funding pie. In such an environment, it is often a temptation to overstate the threat. Such overstatements are harmful because they can sometimes prevent a rational distribution of resources and prevent resources from being allocated to where they are needed most.

Chet Bowen

The world that Allah demands is a
nightmare. This we cannot abide. Allah
is not at all like the Father of Jesus or
Yahweh, the Lord God Creator, but is
more akin to The Beast of The Apocalypse.
Therefore, we have a moral duty to resist
this Death Cult’s incursion into our world.

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Top US military chief is convinced Iranians seek atom bomb
By Chet Bowen | July 25, 2008 - 11:37 pm - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

Top US military chief is convinced Iranians seek atom bomb

20 July: Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Fox News he is convinced the Iranians are seeking to building an atomic bomb, “a very destabilizing possibility in that part of the world.” He stressed the US had the capacity and the reserves to attack Iran as a last resort.

“I’m fighting two wars and I don’t need a third one,” said Mullen referring to Iraq and Afghanistan.


( My comment: Iran should have been destroyed long before this. The idea that they have nuclear plants scattered all over the country is to horrifying to think of the radioactive material that will bring harm to neighboring countries. The only way to ensure they destroy their nuclear programme now is to nuke every single site then make sure Ahmadinejad is dead dead dead, including the Ayatollah.

People are going to put Israel on the back burner should Obama win this election and then the horrors will begin. I can’t understand the utter blindness that seems to engulf so many people that are supposed to be intelligent. Ahmadinejad is as insane as Jeffery Dalmer.

I’m ready for the return of Christ and I surely hate to see so many people doomed to total seperation from God when this comes due to the course of events leading up to enough is enough and there is certainly enough evil going on to fill that quota.

The world that Allah demands is a nightmare. This we cannot abide. Allah is not at all like the Father of Jesus or Yahweh, the Lord God Creator, but is
more akin to The Beast of The Apocalypse. Therefore, we have a moral duty to resist this Death Cult’s incursion into our world and destroy them now……..Chet )


Senior Israeli official: If nuclear talks fail, Bush will order attack between November and January

20 July: This assessment was reported by Israeli national radio Saturday overnight quoting a high-placed “security-political” source.

The source predicted that President George W. Bush would order Iran attacked between the November 4 presidential election and his exit from the White House in January.

The quote was aired shortly after the six-power talks with Iran in Geneva – with US official participation for the first time – ended inconclusively, and just before Israel chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi set out for Washington, to spend a week there as guest of Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

DEBKAfile’s political sources describe the Israeli disclosure as a step aimed at slowing down the collapse of Israel’s stated policy of relying on international diplomatic pressure to thwart Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms. As a high-risk step to derail the accommodations Washington and Tehran are on the way to reaching in their secret talks on a wide range of issues. Israel fears being abandoned and left out in the cold on all its fronts against Iran by these accommodations.


McCain: We can never allow a second Holocaust

21 July: Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain told an Israeli Channel Two TV interviewer Monday, July 21, that he is in favor of communications with Iran at different levels, but would object to face-to-face talks with [president Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad who has publicly dedicated himself to destroying Israel.

The Republican senator spoke shortly before his rival, Democratic Senator Barack Obama, arrived in Israel from Iraq during his foreign tour.

Asked about the possibility of Israel taking unilateral military action to eliminate Iran’s ability to achieve a nuclear weapon, Senator McCain said: I would hope Israelis would not feel bound to do this. I have some optimism we can succeed with sanctions. I think we still have a lot of options to explore before a military option and we have not exercised them all.”

He added: “We can never allow a second Holocaust.”


US, UK, France launch exercise to mock partial naval blockade on Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

21 July: DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Operational Brimstone, starting Monday, July 21, aims at giving military teeth to the two-week ultimatum the six world powers gave Iran in Geneva Saturday to accept the suspension of uranium enrichment or face harsh sanctions.

The penalty of withholding refined oil products from Iran would be exercised by means of a partial international naval blockade against Iran.

Chet Bowen

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Jihadis Post Scenario for the Defeat of the United States
By Chet Bowen | December 8, 2007 - 12:21 am - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

The story below is important to pass along for three reasons. First, as the last paragraph notes, it reveals the mindset and intent of al Qaeda and its allies. Second, we cannot afford to become complacent, no matter how calm circumstances may appear around us. And third, it is essential that, in next year’s elections, America chooses a President who understands the long-term threat arrayed against us and has the experience to deal with it. These are some of the key reasons why ACT for America plans next year to research candidate stands on national security and Islamofascism and to distribute voter information flyers to voters across the country. Jihadis Post Scenario for the Defeat of the United States

By Abdul Hameed Bakier, Erich Marquardt
http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373415

On May 14, jihadi forum users Abu Kandahar and Roslan al-Shami posted a five-point scenario for the collapse of the United States and the rise of the Islamic ummah, entitled, “The Next Strikes in the Heart of America, When and How.” It appeared on the al-ommh.net forum, although at least one other jihadi forum, alhanein.com, reposted the scenario. The posting outlines a scenario for attacking the United States, although the sheer size of the operation suggests that it is jihadi propaganda and not an actual plan that could be operationalized. The alleged operation is dedicated to Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State of Iraq.

The first stage in the scenario involves multiple terrorist attacks on three major U.S. cities, preferably with nuclear weapons, using an unspecified number of trucks. The scenario places priority on attacking New York City because it is the central artery of the U.S. economy and it would prove that the mujahideen are capable of recurrent attacks on the same target. The second city to attack is Los Angeles, an important West Coast “atheist” city. The third “city” to be attacked is Florida because, they argue, it is an East Coast congregation city and has the Kennedy Space Center (considering the description, the statement’s authors probably meant Orlando). While those are the three primary cities for attack, the writers of the document suggest that if the mujahideen wish to expedite the collapse of the United States, they should also conduct attacks in Seattle since it is a strategic border city; Washington, DC, the political center of the United States; and cities in Texas, since the “biggest oil companies” are located there.

According to the writers, the purpose of attacking these specific cities is to cause a sharp decline in the U.S. economy; mass amounts of casualties; the support for the mujahideen by anti-U.S. countries such as Cuba and Venezuela; a decrease in American support for their own government; the withdrawal of the “blasphemous” U.S. military from Islamic territories; mass military desertions; and the inability to fuel U.S. military fighter jets. The document also outlines how the fallout from such large-scale attacks would cause the U.S. military to return to the United States in order to conduct massive relief operations. They refer to the example of how Hurricane Katrina overburdened the U.S. National Guard, calling the hurricane a “Soldier of God.”

After such attacks, they argue that the Islamic State of Iraq will seize the opportunity to launch mass strikes on the apostates in the Iraqi military and police, paving the way for the third stage of the scenario: the commencement of the golden era of the triumphant Islamic conquests that includes the implementation of Sharia, the liberation of the Arabian Peninsula, the removal from power of “the U.S. ruling family” in Jordan and, finally, the big march toward Palestine. In the end, even Washington, DC, will fall to the mujahideen and that will conclude the final stage of Islamic control of the globe.

The scenario appears less of a planned operation than a hope for the fulfillment of a prophecy. The supposed factuality of the scenario is based on various verses in the Quran and the Prophet Muhammad’s teachings. Nevertheless, some of the users on the forums who discussed the scenario asserted that all of the details to execute the operation had already been prepared. One such user, by the alias of Abu Nedal, said, “For your knowledge, the operations are ready and awaiting the orders from our leader Osama bin Laden, God protect him, to decide what he deems appropriate either to strike now or to wait.”

Islamist extremists have always fabricated factitious scenarios for victory over the West based on their own interpretations of Quranic prophecies in times of crisis and defeat. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda has shown prior interest in acquiring nuclear materials for use in an attack, and it is necessary to take such forum postings seriously as they display the mindset and the intent, although perhaps not the capability, of al-Qaeda-affiliated militants.

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Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
By Chet Bowen | December 7, 2007 - 2:15 am - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate
on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program
Jerusalem Data Brief
http://www.jcpa.org
Gerald M. Steinberg

  • The U.S. government’s latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has concluded that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003, and will not have such a capability until at least 2012. While the NIE states that the U.S. intelligence community has “high confidence” that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only “moderate confidence” that Tehran has not restarted the program.
  • In contrast, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that while it is “apparently true that in 2003, Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time,” nonetheless, he adds that “in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon.”
  • A number of factors can explain these differences in assessments. Israel, the prime potential target for a nuclear Iran, cannot afford to take the chance of underestimating the threat, and therefore relies on what policy-makers refer to as a “worst-case” analysis. This means that the focus is on Iranian capabilities, rather than intentions, which can only be guessed.
  • Israeli analysts have long warned their U.S. counterparts about the potential for a parallel “black” Iranian weapons program, based on a small nuclear reactor producing plutonium, and following the North Korean model. Indeed, Iran is known to be constructing just such a reactor at Arak, leaving room for another undetected facility.
  • From the portions of the NIE report that have been released, it appears that much of the assessment is based not on technical capabilities and information gathered from satellites and other sources, but rather on attempts to understand Iranian intentions. But intentions are the most unreliable dimension in the realm of intelligence, and often reflect the interests, biases, and expectations of the assessor.

The U.S. government’s latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has concluded that Iran froze its active efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons in 2003, and will not have such a capability until at least 2012. While the NIE states that the U.S. intelligence community has “high confidence” that the Iranians halted their nuclear weapons program in 2003, it also states that it has only “moderate confidence” that Tehran has not restarted the program.1 In contrast, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that while it is “apparently true that in 2003, Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time,” nonetheless, he adds that “in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon.”2

This assessment contrasts sharply with estimates that, if left undisturbed, Iran will cross the threshold in the next year or two – and the evidence for the NIE’s sweeping claim is unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently confirmed official Iranian claims to have completed construction of the 3,000 centrifuges necessary to produce enough highly enriched uranium for at least one nuclear weapon per year. This is also the basis for the statements from Israeli military and intelligence officials which view the next year – 2008 – as critical for stopping Iran before the finish line.

A number of factors can explain these differences in assessments. Israel, the prime potential target for a nuclear Iran, cannot afford to take the chance of underestimating the threat, and therefore relies on what policy-makers refer to as a “worst-case” analysis. This means that the focus is on Iranian capabilities, rather than intentions, which can only be guessed.

Using this approach, when Iran reaches the technological potential to produce enough fissile material necessary to make a nuclear weapon, it will be considered to be a nuclear weapons state, capable of threatening Israel with annihilation. And while the details of Iran’s weapons fabrication efforts can be hidden and are less likely to be known to intelligence agencies, the operating assumption is that there are secret facilities where this may be taking place. Indeed, Israeli analysts have long warned their U.S. counterparts about the potential for a parallel “black” Iranian weapons program, based on a small nuclear reactor producing plutonium, and following the North Korean model. Indeed, Iran is known to be constructing just such a reactor at Arak, leaving room for another undetected facility.

The consequences of a small, secret Iranian nuclear program are less significant for the U.S., given its massive military superiority over Iran. Therefore, there is more room for political factors and influence in the official U.S. estimates. After having warned of a massive Iraqi program to produce weapons of mass destruction in 2003, and then finding no evidence following the invasion, the U.S. intelligence agencies may be trying to restore their image by going to the other extreme and underestimating the pace of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. And Iran may very well continue to face difficulties in operating a very complex system of thousands of centrifuges spinning in unison and moving uranium to ever higher levels of enrichment without contamination.

However, from the portions of the NIE report that have been released, it appears that much of the assessment is based not only on technical capabilities and information gathered from satellites and other sources, but rather on attempts to understand Iranian intentions. But intentions are the most unreliable dimension in the realm of intelligence, and often reflect the interests, biases, and expectations of the assessor. While the construction of a massive centrifuge facility at Natanz to produce weapons grade uranium may not be the optimum path to nuclear weapons from an American perspective, this may be the best option open to Iran, and cannot be discounted. The scale and cost of the Natanz nuclear complex, as well as the plutonium production reactor and other facilities are not consistent with a program limited to producing low-enriched uranium for energy production. This makes no economic sense.

The NIE report touches on the Iranian plutonium program: “We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.” But the NIE also takes into consideration that such materials might be imported: “We cannot rule out that Iran has acquired from abroad – or will acquire in the future – a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon.” U.S. arms control experts specializing in North Korea have indeed warned in the past about the scenario of North Korean exports of plutonium products to Iran as a possible shortcut to producing an Iranian bomb.3

Although President Bush responded to the NIE report by reconfirming his determination to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, the threat of attack from the U.S. in the next five years is now much less credible. Given the disquiet in the U.S. over the status of the situation in Iraq, and with an official assessment stating that Iran gave up its program to develop nuclear weapons four years ago, the president would face very strong opposition to any decision ordering U.S. forces into battle again. And the fear of a potential Iranian counterattack, in the form of mass terror and possible missile attacks against American assets in the region, would increase this opposition.

As a result, a number of Israeli analysts and officials have expressed concern and even dismay over the NIE report and its implications. Israeli officials reject the NIE conclusions, and, as noted, view the threat as far more imminent. If Israeli intelligence concludes that the red lines are closer than those perceived in the U.S., Israel could still use force unilaterally (as was the case in Prime Minister Begin’s decision to destroy Iraq’s Osiraq reactor in 1981). But Israeli officials have sought to avoid a situation of needing to act unilaterally again.

For Iran, the sudden change in the U.S. assessment contained in the NIE report is a mixed blessing. The good news for the Islamic regime is that the odds of American military action have declined, at least for the time being. Iran can apparently continue to develop its centrifuges and reactors without fear of a sudden U.S.-led attack, and the odds of overt Israeli action have probably also declined.

However, the intense Iranian effort to be seen as a nuclear power that can no longer be stopped has been clearly exposed as a bluff. President Ahmedinejad and other officials have invested heavily in the attempt to portray the Iranian nuclear capability as a fait accompli that must be accepted in the region and around the world. And they have been aided at times by Dr. Mohammed El Baradei, the Director General of the IAEA.

Now, however, the Iranian leadership and an increasingly restless public face at least five more years of sanctions, international isolation, and pressure. And Dr. El Baradei has pulled back from granting Iran immunity from sanctions by highlighting the history of deceit and calling for full cooperation from Teheran. Indeed, following the U.S. report, the leaders of Europe, as well as China and Russia, have reiterated the dangers that would result from an Iranian nuclear weapon capability. Thus, the celebrations in Iran may be short-sighted and short-lived. The economic and diplomatic pressure is likely to continue and even increase.

The bottom line, as noted in the NIE report and by President Bush, is that Iranian nuclear efforts remain dangerous, and that there is still time to prevent this radical regime from acquiring these weapons. How much time remains the subject of debate, and the NIE conclusions are tentative and subject to revision at any time as new information becomes available. To its credit, the NIE report admits the limitations of the U.S. intelligence community with respect to its ability to determine that the 2003 halt in the Iranian weapons program is permanent: “We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely.” Clearly, the NIE conclusions now appearing in the press are not the end of the story.

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Where there’s smoke, there’s fire
By Chet Bowen | December 5, 2007 - 4:53 am - Posted in Islam, Religion, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

The WorldNetDaily story below is a triumph of good investigative journalism. CAIR (The Council on American-Islamic Relations) repeatedly denies ties to terrorist organizations, but the evidence disputing those denials continues to grow. As the old saying goes, “where there’s smoke, there’s fire.” In CAIR’s case, there’s so much smoke CAIR must be hoping that the smoke will blind our eyes from seeing the fire.
HOMELAND INSECURITY
CAIR called ‘turnstile’ for terrorist suspects
‘Proven record of senior officials being indicted, imprisoned, deported from U.S.’

 

Posted: December 4, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern © 2007 WorldNetDaily.com

As the Council on American-Islamic Relations lobbies Congress to help strike its name from a list of co-conspirators in a federal terror case, WND has learned the Muslim group’s ties to terrorism and extremism are far more extensive than first believed.

Although CAIR is a nonprofit organization, it does not disclose complete directories of its staff or advisory boards, and even refuses to make its federal tax filings readily available to the public.

But a review of federal criminal court documents, past IRS 990 tax records and Federal Election Commission records detailing donor occupations, reveals that Washington-based CAIR has been associated with a disturbing number of convicted terrorists or felons in terrorism probes, as well as suspected terrorists and active targets of terrorism investigations.

“Their offices have been a turnstile for terrorists and their supporters,” said one FBI veteran familiar with recent and ongoing cases involving CAIR officials.

As previously reported, three CAIR officials have been linked to terrorism. But WND has learned that at least 11 other CAIR officials have been caught up in terror investigations, bringing the total to 14.

Congressional leaders say they are warning lawmakers and other Washington officials to disassociate from the group due to its growing terror ties.

“Groups like CAIR have a proven record of senior officials being indicted and either imprisoned or deported from the United States,” said U.S. Rep. Sue Myrick, R-N.C., co-founder of the House Anti-Terrorism/Jihad Caucus.

CAIR itself recently was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in an alleged scheme to funnel $12 million to the terrorist group Hamas. In the Holy Land Foundation case, federal prosecutors also listed CAIR as a member of the U.S. branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, a worldwide jihadist movement that gave rise to Hamas, al-Qaida and other terrorist groups. The government will retry the Holy Land case, which ended in a hung jury.

“There was a lot of evidence presented at the recent Holy Land Foundation trial which exposed CAIR and others as front groups for the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States,” Myrick said.

Still, CAIR is lobbying House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers and other sympathetic members of Congress to pressure the Justice Department to expunge its name from the case, arguing the negative publicity has hurt membership and fundraising.

The federal judge during the trial refused a written request by the group to strike its name from the list of co-conspirators. The petition is still pending before the court.

CAIR denies supporting terrorism and continues to claim to be a “moderate” voice for Muslims in America. The group says its critics are the extremists, including radio personality Michael Savage, whom the group is now attacking with a boycott campaign. So far it has convinced Wal-Mart, OfficeMax, AT&T, JCPenney and other companies to stop advertising on Savage’s popular show.

In response, Savage last week filed a lawsuit against CAIR, accusing the organization of being a “political vehicle of international terrorism” that seeks to do “material harm to those voices who speak against the violent agenda of CAIR’s clients.”

Ibrahim Hooper, communications director for CAIR, told WND the group would not comment on Savage’s action until the document had been reviewed.

CAIR, which runs 33 offices and chapters nationwide, also recently helped defeat an anti-terror plan by Los Angeles police to map the local Muslim community for extremist neighborhoods. Now it’s pressuring GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney to back down from his position against appointing a Muslim to his Cabinet.

Critics counter that CAIR has no legitimate voice to make such complaints, because the group is itself an extremist organization that has employed or appointed to its boards of directors and advisers an inordinate number of radical co-conspirators, suspected and convicted terrorists, and other criminals.

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Muslims of the Americas tied to U.S. counterfeit trade
By Chet Bowen | November 24, 2007 - 3:34 pm - Posted in Islam, Survival, The world, Uncategorized

Jamaat ul Fuqra, Muslims of the Americas tied to U.S. counterfeit trade

In the past we have reported on Jamaat ul Fuqra and those 45 Jihadi para-military training camps in the US.  The Canada Free Press report below provides information as to how some with ties to Jamaat ul Fuqra likely secured funding for these camps. The report details how members of Jaamat al Fuqra’s front group, Muslims of the Americas, set up by extremist Pakistani Sheikh Mubarek Ali Gilani, were selling counterfeit goods generating millions of dollars to fund their programs. Three suspects were sentenced in a U.S. Eastern Virginia Federal District Court for terms ranging from 21 to 57 months.

We have argued that Congress should be investigating Jaamat ul Fuqra and its front group, Muslims of the Americas, given this evidence of terror financing. You ACT members ranked this issue very high up on national matters to be dealt with by our government and Congress.


Jamaat ul Fuqra, Muslims of the Americas tied to U.S. counterfeit trade

By Douglas J. Hagmann, Director, & Judi McLeod, Founding Editor, Canada Free Press, November 16, 2007

16 November 2007: Earlier this year, a multi-million dollar counterfeit clothing ring based in New York City with its tentacles reaching into various states and internationally was busted by federal authorities after a lengthy investigation. Investigation revealed that at least three of those arrested have definitive ties to the terrorist organization Jamaat ul Fuqra and its front group, the Muslims of the Americas, led by Pakistani terrorist Sheikh Mubarek Ali Gilani. The latest action in this case occurred this week. On Wednesday, 14 November 2007, U.S. District Judge Henry Hudson sentenced Ronald Roundtree, 51, a member of the Muslims of the Americas camp in Virginia to 21 months in federal prison for his role in a multi-state, multi-million dollar counterfeiting ring.

The counterfeiting ring was busted by federal authorities on 7 March 2007, as announced by the United States Attorney’s Office Eastern District of Virginia. In a press release, authorities announced the arrest of eight-(8) individuals in Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, and New York, as part of a FBI led investigation into trafficking in counterfeit goods and copyright infringement.

According to investigative reports, the counterfeit clothing ring led by Abbas CHOUMAN, 43, of Astoria, NY generated over $7 million in revenue. CHOUMAN was sentenced on Friday, 12 October 2007 to 57 months in federal prison for his role in the criminal copyright infringement scam. In September, HAQQ, PIERRE and HARMON were sentenced to 8, 24, and 27 month prison terms respectively for their roles in the operation; on August 2, Ishoc Uthman Ibn-Abdus SALAAM, was sentenced to 18 months in prison after being found guilty by a federal jury in Richmond of attempted conspiracy to traffic in counterfeit goods. Additionally, Terri SINGLETON, 34, of Beckley, WV, one of ROUNDTREE’s three wives, previously pleaded guilty to conspiracy to traffic in counterfeit goods with ROUNDREE. SINGLETON received two years probation in a separate federal court penalty hearing last month.

As part of the investigation conducted by this agency, it was determined that three of the above named defendants, Ismail HAQQ, 33, Cherubin PIERRE, 32, and Ronald ROUNDTREE, 51 have ties to the Muslims of the Americas and Jamaat ul Fuqra encampments located within the United States and Canada. The headquarters for Jamaat ul Fuqra is located on the outskirts of Hancock, NY, nestled in a wooded area near the water reservoir that supplies the majority of fresh water to the greater New York City area.

Jamaat ul Fuqra is the Islamic terrorist organization operational within the United Stated and Canada that uses the Muslims of the Americas as an allegedly innocuous Islamic organization that is led by the Pakistani terrorist Sheikh Mubarek Gilani. Gilani, most notably, was identified as the Muslim leader that Wall Street Journal Reporter Daniel Pearl was on his way to interview when he was kidnapped and brutally beheaded. Investigators from the Northeast Intelligence Network first reported on the activities of Jamaat ul Fuqra on this web site in a comprehensive report last year. That report drew the ire of Pakistani Sheikh Gilani against the Northeast Intelligence Network, along with denials of his involvement in any criminal or terrorist enterprise in the U.S.

As verified by Interpol, the FBI and CSIS, there is a vast amount of money being made in the sale of counterfeit goods, and in many cases, the profits are being funneled to Islamic terrorist groups. From brake pads to CDs and clothing, it’s easy to find a source for “knock-off” goods in the city where you live. According to Interpol, most terrorist organizations, including al Qaeda, will have a counterfeiting arm built within their organization that raises money for the terrorist leaders to fund terror operations and sustain their organizations.

Despite the innocuous characterizations by some in law enforcement and neighboring residents that the Muslim compounds housing members of the Muslims of the Americas, or more precisely, Jamaat ul Fuqra are “good residents and neighbors,” evidence uncovered by our investigation suggests that activities at these compounds could involve terrorist training. In addition to such training, additional evidence was uncovered that Gilani’s disciples are involved in raining money for terrorist operations though Muslim charities inside the U.S. The counterfeiting operation is just one more method of fund raising for terrorism operations.

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