Will There Be a War on Iran? I’m certain of it.
This question is becoming almost rhetorical now that Washington has taken all the steps, both from a military and media point of view, to launch an aggression against Iran. Commandos have already infiltrated Iran preparing this war. The president has reclassified nuclear weapons into the conventional arsenal and will be used at free usage just as a conventional bomb would be used. World War III is coming.
Let’s look at the facts.
Bush and his entourage are repeatedly insisting that Teheran suspend its nuclear development program and cease from enriching uranium.
To support this campaign, Western media outlets continually repeat Washington’s demands, while emphasizing Iran’s rejection of them.
Few analytical articles in the corporate media take into consideration Iran’s position, which asserts the principle contained in the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, in terms of the right of every country to develop nuclear programs for peaceful purposes.
Nor do they delve into the fact that Iran, a signatory of that treaty, is also a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors are supervising the Iranian program on a daily basis, with permanent and modern monitoring equipment.
The most recent experience shows that the United States was perfectly capable of invading and occupying Iraq on a war totally based on lies and manipulation.
Of course, Iran is not Iraq, nor are the circumstances or the political and military setting the same.
However, the Bush Administration has used a UN Security Council with little credibility, and an inconsistent European Union, to approve sanctions against Iran, and even commit to war threats if the government of that nation does not acquiesce to the US demands.
That was the context of the recent infiltration of British marines in Iranian territorial waters, and the detention of Iranian diplomats accredited in Baghdad by US troops.
Another element favoring the thesis of a possible military action is the most recently held US military maneuver in the Persian Gulf and the fact that the powerful hardware deployed in the area will remain there with all their troops, fighter aircraft, sophisticated rockets and other weapons.
A reporter from the Associated Press, who traveled on board the John C Stennis aircraft carrier, described the drill as “an exhibition to Iran of US military might.â€
This last deployment added 13,000 fresh troops, 2 aircraft carriers, 125 planes, auxiliary ships and other means in an area where the United States currently has some 40,000 troops, not counting the 150,000 currently occupying Iraq, and the 18,000 stationed in Afghanistan.
The disproportionate military operation seems to be a preview of a possible attack against Iran.
An aggression against Iran would complicate even more the already volatile situation in the region; and neighboring countries have already voiced their disapproval of any military action.
Among the key elements that seem to be deterring a military action at this time is the consistent defense of the Iranian government to carry out its nuclear energy plans, vital for the development of the country.
The Iranian people and its armed forces have repeatedly shown that they will not give up their right to independence and will continue to support their government’s peaceful nuclear program, and reject the threats and conditions being made by the Bush administration.
Another aspect that also leads one to think against an attack against Iran is the fact the US, in its stagnated and lost war in Iraq, has some 200,000 troops involved in the region, a manpower that in the case of an attack against Iran could become the target of a military response from Teheran.
Due to its military capacity, Iran could mobilize an amount of troops and resources to the Iraqi border that would definitely put a stiff resistance to the US rearguard.
Opposing the possibility of a US attack on Iran are neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf, which are not in the least interested in another war in the zone, this time against a country with considerable military might.
The small emirates and other nations of the Gulf or near it, depend on the water that they process out of that sea. If a war takes place there, no one could assure that their water treatment plants would remain exempt from damage, or not be impacted by the pollution caused by depleted uranium munitions or any other weapon used in the conflict.
The region concentrates one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. If a war was to be launched, production would be interrupted altogether or partially affected, and the price of crude oil could see an unprecedented hike.
Remember that in the Strait of Hormuz, located in the same Iranian platform, more than 40 percent of the world’s oil circulates and that if this sea corridor were to be closed by an armed conflict, the oil would cease to flow to many countries including the wealthy nations of the West.
The United Arab Emirates has stated that it would not join a military action against its neighbour. Earlier Qatar said it “would not permit an attack on Iran from its territory.â€
Qatar is a country where the Pentagon has a huge base at Al-Uleid, the general command headquarters of US air operations in the Middle East.
A similar pronouncement was made by the Gulf Cooperation Council made up by Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrein and the United Arab Emirates.
In weighing both reflections, I’m inclined to believe that the pretension of the Bush administration to attack Iran is not viable, even though I share the same uncertainty felt around the world because nobody can be sure, when dealing with Bush and his team.
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Chet
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